Trade School Market Insights

October 2024 Edition

In the initial version of this recurring report, Validated Insights utilizes a proprietary classification of institutions in the NCES IPEDS universe to give the most granular update on enrollment trends in the trade school/vocational education space. Married with general market performance data, this report provides readers with actionable data necessary to make strategic decisions.

The Trade School Market Insights Report is packed with first-of-kind proprietary data, general market statistics, and expert analysis. Readers of the report can plan to have an in-depth understanding of what has happened in the world of Vocational Education, and where the market is heading.

As seen in

Key Insights

Trade schools enroll a significant amount of students, and enrollment at these institutions is growing.

As of 2023 there were 1.5 million students enrolled in Trade/Vocational Schools (12-month enrollment). Additionally, another 2.5 million students are enrolled in technical/vocational education programs at institutions not in the NCES IPEDS universe.

Leveraging data from our first-of-kind classification of higher education institutions, we find that there are 1.5 million students enrolled at Trade Schools across the United States. Futhermore, we find that enrollment in Trade Schools grew 4.9% from 2020 to 2023 while enrollment at universities declined 0.6%. Going forward, analysts project that revenue from Trade Schools will grow at a 5-7% CAGR through 2030.

Culinary Arts Schools are the best performing sub-category of Trade Schools, growing at a 9.4% CAGR from 2017 to 2023. The worst performing sub-category of Trade Schools is the Maintenance and Repair sub-category, which saw enrollments decline at a -3.3% CAGR.

In 2024 Trade Schools were estimated to bring in $16.8B in revenues, representing only modest growth from 2017 when these institutions brough in $16.2B. From 2017 to 2023, while Trade School revenues grew at a 0.7% CAGR, Trade School enrollment grew at a more modest 0.4% CAGR. From 2020 to 2023, however, Trade School enrollment grew 4.9% while Trade School revenue grew 11.1%.

Prospective student interest in Trade Schools is growing faster than enrollment.

Monthly Google search traffic for Trade Schools grew at a 10.3% CAGR from 2017 to 2024.

From 2017 to 2023, enrollment at Trade Schools grew at a 0.4% CAGR. During that same time frame, Google search traffic for Trade Schools grew at an 8.0% CAGR. From 2023 to 2024 specifically, Trade School search traffic grew 27.1%, however Trade School revenues declined 0.4%.

Surveys indicate that prospective student interest in attending Trade Schools nearly doubled during the COVID pandemic for both teens and adults.

Pre-pandemic, the percent of teens interested in Trade School was 4% and the percent of adults interested in Trade School was 10%. Post-pandemic, however, 7% of teens and 18% of adults indicated interest in attending a Trade School. All told, there has been a surge in interest in attending a Trade School that has not yet translated into an enrollment boom.

Actions and Reminders

1. Trade School enrollment is unevenly distributed across institution type. Remember that Culinary Arts Schools and Healthcare Trade Schools are the best performing sub-categories of Trade Schools in terms of enrollment growth while Maintenance and Repair Schools are declining.2. Ensure a fully-functional enrollment funnel. Interest among prospective students is surging, however this has not yeat translated to a true boom in enrollment at Trade Schools. It is imperative that every effort is made to capture these newly-interested students at the top of the enrollment funnel.3. Focus on shorter, non-degree programs. Remember that an estimated 60% of Trade School enrollments are enrollments in non-degree programs and that there is an additional 2.5 million students enrolled in Trade/Vocational Education programs at providers outside of the NCES IPEDS universe.

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